Summary
Tax experts - including one who supports Romney's plan - say the Republican presidential candidate's promise to cut individual income tax rates without either favoring the wealthy or losing revenue isn't mathematically possible.
That's the conclusion of the Tax Policy Center in a report the Romney campaign attacked as "biased" (although the campaign previously praised the TPC as "objective," when it issued a report critical of a rival's tax plan).
And it's also the conclusion of an expert from the pro-business Tax Foundation, who states that the Tax Policy Center analysis "correctly identified the Romney plan as a tax cut, at least in static terms, that accrues mainly to high-income earners."
Romney has proposed very specific tax cuts. He would make the Bush-era income tax cuts and capital gains tax cuts permanent, then cut all income tax rates by an additional 20 percent across the board, repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax (which hits upper-income taxpayers), and permanently repeal the estate tax (which currently applies only to estates valued at $5 million or more).
Romney has said he would offset the loss of personal income tax revenue (estimated at $360 billion a year by the Tax Policy Center) by reducing tax deductions and credits. And he has said he would do this while making sure that those at the top keep paying the "same share of the tax burden they’re paying now."
But he has steadfastly refused to say which tax preferences would be cut or reduced. He has pointed to the revenue-neutral proposals for rate-cutting put forth by the deficit commission as evidence that what he proposes is possible in theory, but those proposals pay for the cuts largely by taxing capital gains at the higher rates that apply to ordinary income, a measure Romney has specifically ruled out.
So Romney has failed to produce evidence that what he promises is possible. And we judge that the weight of evidence and expert opinion is clear - it’s not possible.
Romney says this criticism ignores his separate plan to cut corporate tax rates, which he says will stimulate economic growth. Indeed, there's evidence to suggest that cutting corporate taxes can do that, and the Tax Foundation expert (who supports Romney's plan) suggests that more jobs would be an acceptable trade-off for a less progressive personal income tax system.
But how much growth to expect is debatable, especially because Romney proposes to cut only the corporate tax rate, not corporate taxes overall. He would offset the rate cut by eliminating tax preferences resulting in no loss of revenue. During the Bush administration, Treasury Department experts concluded that the corporate rate could be dropped to 28 percent without losing revenue (Romney proposes 25 percent), but that such a trade-off "might well have little or no effect" on economic growth.
Romney's experts predict about a 1 percent increase in growth. One of the authors of the Tax Policy Center study says that is "implausibly large" and even if it materializes it wouldn't prevent a tax increase on middle-income taxpayers under Romney’s income tax plan.
There's room to argue that the benefits of increased growth are a fair trade for a less progressive tax system. In fact, that's exactly the case made by the Tax Foundation's expert, who notes that "the currently unemployed will receive the greatest benefit in the form of a job."
But Romney's claim that he can somehow slash individual income tax rates without losing federal revenue or favoring the wealthy remains at best unproven, and in our judgment, based on available evidence, impossible.
Note: This is a summary only. The full article with analysis, images and citations may be viewed at FactCheck.org
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